研究目的
To explore PHEV market penetration models by developing an agent-based model (ABM) of potential PHEV consumer adoption that incorporates spatial, social, and media influences to identify nonlinear interactions among potential leverage points that may impact PHEV market penetration.
研究成果
The study found that fear of new PHEV technology remains a large barrier to widespread PHEV adoption among new car buyers. The model also showed that governmental and manufacturer rebates will remain necessary to make PHEVs competitive until the sticker price of these vehicles comes down. The close integration of consumer surveys and the design of agent-based models is a key step in the development of useful decision-support models in the transportation research community and beyond.
研究不足
The model is relatively simple and does not account for future unknown changes in technology or how these might impact PHEV price or consumer willingness to adopt. Additionally, the model's predictions are subject to uncertainties associated with various assumptions.