研究目的
To improve the accuracy of photovoltaic power forecasting by proposing a bagging model that uses an ensemble model as a base learner and incorporates past output data as new features.
研究成果
The proposed ensemble learner-based bagging model using past data features showed better performance than the bagging model using a single model learner with default features. The model reduced the error rate by up to 50% or more in some cases. However, further improvements are needed to achieve higher accuracy.
研究不足
The MAE metric is still quite high, indicating the model needs further improvement to be considered accurate. The study did not tune each base learner’s hyperparameter for optimization, which could potentially lower the error further.
1:Experimental Design and Method Selection:
The study proposed a bagging model with ensemble models (random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM) as base learners and incorporated past output data as new features.
2:Sample Selection and Data Sources:
Used one year of data (2016) from a PV plant in South Korea, including hourly temperatures, humidity, irradiation, and actual output.
3:List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
Data features included date, time, humidity, temperature, irradiation, and actual output.
4:Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
The ratio of training data to test data was set to 80:20, with test data at the last three to five days of each month.
5:Data Analysis Methods:
Performance was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE).
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