研究目的
To develop a modeling method of photovoltaic (PV) power production uncertainty for its consideration in the generation scheduling of an urban microgrid, analyzing its impact on operational costs and operating reserve.
研究成果
The paper presents an optimization scheme for generation scheduling in an urban microgrid, considering PV power uncertainty and operating reserve provision. It demonstrates the impact of PV uncertainty on operational costs and reserve, providing a basis for future integration of uncertainty directly into the optimization algorithm and consideration of storage solutions.
研究不足
The study does not integrate uncertainty directly inside the optimization algorithm for a stochastic analysis of predicted operating costs. Application of storage to erase uncertainty is not considered.
1：Experimental Design and Method Selection:
The study employs a dynamic programming algorithm to solve a non-convex mixed-integer nonlinear programming model for optimal generation scheduling, considering PV power uncertainty and operating reserve provision.
2：Sample Selection and Data Sources:
The study uses historical data of PV power forecasting errors and load demand in an urban microgrid setting.
3：List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
The microgrid includes a prosumer with 55kW rated PV power, 110kW residential rated load, and three micro gas turbines (MGTs).
4：Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
The algorithm calculates generation scheduling and operating reserve based on PV and load forecasts, then re-schedules considering PV forecast intervals with a 95% confidence level.
5：Data Analysis Methods:
Probabilistic analysis of PV forecasting errors is conducted to model uncertainty, and the impact on operational costs and reserve is analyzed.
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