研究目的
To analyze inter-annual variability of PV generation across the contiguous United States and assess the representativeness of typical meteorological year (TMY) data.
研究成果
The TMY tends to overpredict estimated PV production on average, but with significant regional bias and spatial clustering. There is no single year of data that approximates a representative 'resource year' for all regions of the United States, indicating the need for site-specific analyses and awareness of TMY data limitations.
研究不足
The study highlights the potential shortcomings of using TMY data for assessing individual sites or for national scale capacity expansion modeling, due to regional bias and spatial clustering in exceedance probabilities.
1：Experimental Design and Method Selection:
The study uses the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) from 1998 to 2014 to analyze PV generation variability. The TMY dataset is compared against the long-term mean.
2：Sample Selection and Data Sources:
The NSRDB covers most of the Western Hemisphere at 4km spatial resolution and half-hour time steps.
3：List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model and the Systems Advisor Model (SAM) are used to estimate annual generation.
4：Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
Annual generation for a 2 MW (DC) one-axis tracker PV system is estimated for each individual year and for the TMY at each grid cell in the NSRDB.
5：Data Analysis Methods:
Exceedance probabilities from P5 to P95 are calculated for each NSRDB cell using the empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF).
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