研究目的
To study the economic profitability and environmental impact of residential solar energy systems in the Mediterranean area, focusing on grid parity and carbon footprint analysis.
研究成果
The study concludes that grid parity for residential solar energy in the Mediterranean area is near, expected within 2-5 years for most countries, except Greece (around 10 years). The optimal installed capacity is 1.5-2 kWp, with NPV/investment ratios of 0.4-0.6 and IRRs of 3-4%. Carbon footprint analysis shows positive environmental impacts, with energy payback times of 2-3 years and carbon emissions of 8-83 gCO2/kWh depending on manufacturing location. A massive adoption could significantly contribute to carbon reduction goals under the Paris Agreement, but administrative barriers and price volatility remain challenges.
研究不足
The model is conservative, excluding energy storage and grid resale, which may underestimate profitability. Assumptions on constant electricity prices and discount rates may not hold in reality. Data on domestic load curves are limited to Spain, extrapolated to other countries. Carbon footprint calculations depend on manufacturing location assumptions (e.g., China vs. Europe), leading to variability in results.
1:Experimental Design and Method Selection:
The study uses a conservative model for residential PV systems without energy storage or resale to the grid. It involves financial analysis using net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) calculations. Carbon footprint analysis is conducted using life-cycle assessment (LCA) methods.
2:Sample Selection and Data Sources:
Data on electricity prices, solar irradiation, and domestic consumption are sourced from Eurostat, JRC European Commission, national energy agencies (e.g., REE for Spain, RTE for France), and literature. The geographic focus is on Mediterranean countries including Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Malta, and Greece.
3:List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
PV modules (polycrystalline silicon, 250 W each), inverters (string type), control systems, structures for mounting, and installation materials. Costs are based on market ranges.
4:Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
The model calculates optimal installed capacity (0.5 to 2.5 kWp) by comparing production curves (from solar irradiation data) with domestic load curves. Financial indicators are computed over a 25-year lifespan with sensitivity analyses on costs and electricity prices. Carbon emissions are evaluated for manufacturing and operational phases.
5:5 to 5 kWp) by comparing production curves (from solar irradiation data) with domestic load curves. Financial indicators are computed over a 25-year lifespan with sensitivity analyses on costs and electricity prices. Carbon emissions are evaluated for manufacturing and operational phases.
Data Analysis Methods:
5. Data Analysis Methods: Statistical analysis of financial metrics (NPV, IRR, payback), LCOE forecasting using exponential models based on learning and growth rates, and carbon balance calculations using emission factors from literature and national data.
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