- 标题
- 摘要
- 关键词
- 实验方案
- 产品
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Is it a good time to develop commercial photovoltaic systems on farmland? An American-style option with crop price risk
摘要： Photovoltaic systems require large swaths of land that are currently being used for other purposes, such as farming. One option for developing large photovoltaic systems is converting farms that are currently economically unviable into commercial photovoltaic systems. However, this may not always be an economically rational decision as crop prices have the potential to increase over time. Fluctuations in farm income due to changes in crop prices can alter the optimal choice of whether to continue farming or to convert farmland into commercial photovoltaic systems. This study attempts to resolve this issue by proposing a real options framework to value farm production when crop prices are uncertain. By integrating uncertainty into the decision-making process, the value of keeping unprofitable farms operating prior to developing the area into a commercial photovoltaic system is assessed. This helps decision makers understand the extent to which potential income from developing a photovoltaic system should be greater than potential income from farming when deciding on investing in a photovoltaic system. A case study is conducted to examine this framework and to calculate the net present value of a farm in South Korea. The results indicate that although the money lost from continuing to farm is substantial, farmers should defer conversion to a commercial photovoltaic system until a sufficient drop in crop prices occurs. When applying this strategy, the farmer can gain an additional 100% of expected revenue simply by deferring the development decision until having better information on the market prices of crops.
关键词： Agriculture,Solar,Photovoltaic,Farmland,Life cycle cost,Real options
更新于2025-09-23 15:21:01
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[IEEE 2018 7th International Conference on Agro-geoinformatics (Agro-geoinformatics) - Hangzhou (2018.8.6-2018.8.9)] 2018 7th International Conference on Agro-geoinformatics (Agro-geoinformatics) - A Method for Deriving Plant Temperature from UAV TIR Image
摘要： Crops are greatly affected by the temperature of farmland surface during their growing period. It is feasible to investigate the growth status of crops based on temperature information. For serving the research of crop growth status, the component temperature (e.g. temperature of vegetation and temperature of soil) are in need to be obtained. In this study, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) temperature measurement system with a thermal infrared (TIR) imager and a charge-coupled device (CCD) camera is assembled and applied the brightness temperatures of farmland surface. The target areas were photographed by the UAV temperature measurement system according to a pre-set route, and obtain TIR and visible images. The component temperatures are obtained from the TIR image as following processes: (1) When shaded components are negligible at noon, two components, i.e. vegetation and soil, are divided by the OTSU algorithm; and (2) When shaded components cannot be ignored in the morning and afternoon, various components, i.e. vegetation, soil and concrete, the TIR image is divided into soil, vegetation and concrete by the corresponding classified visible images; Then, each of the components is divided into light and shaded components by the OTSU algorithm; thus, four components are obtained, including sunlit vegetation, shaded vegetation, sunlit soil, and shaded soil. The derived component temperatures can serve as inputs to agricultural and water resource models.
关键词： farmland,TIR,UAV,surface temperature of crops
更新于2025-09-11 14:15:04