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Outlier Events of Solar Forecasts for Regional Power Grid in Japan Using JMA Mesoscale Model
摘要： To realize the safety control of electric power systems under high penetration of photovoltaic power systems, accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts using numerical weather prediction models (NWP) are becoming increasingly important. The objective of this study is to understand meteorological characteristics pertaining to large errors (i.e., outlier events) of GHI day-ahead forecasts obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency, for nine electric power areas during four years from 2014 to 2017. Under outlier events in GHI day-ahead forecasts, several sea-level pressure (SLP) patterns were found in 80 events during the four years; (a) a western edge of anticyclone over the Pacific Ocean (frequency per 80 outlier events; 48.8%), (b) stationary fronts (20.0%), (c) a synoptic-scale cyclone (18.8%), and (d) typhoons (tropical cyclones) (8.8%) around the Japanese islands. In this study, the four case studies of the worst outlier events were performed. A remarkable SLP pattern was the case of the western edge of anticyclone over the Pacific Ocean around Japan. The comparison between regionally integrated GHI day-ahead forecast errors and cloudiness forecasts suggests that the issue of accuracy of cloud forecasts in high- and mid-levels troposphere in NWPs will remain in the future.
关键词： outlier events,regional integration,global horizontal irradiance (GHI),photovoltaic (PV) power generation,numerical weather prediction (NWP),day-ahead forecast
更新于2025-09-23 15:23:52
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PV module fault diagnosis based on micro-converters and day-ahead forecast
摘要： The employment of solar micro-converter allows a more detailed monitoring of the PV output power at the single module level; thus, machine learning techniques are capable to track the peculiarities of modules in the PV plants such as regular shadings. In this way it is possible to compare in real-time the day-ahead forecast power with the actual one in order to better evaluate faults or anomalous trends which might have occurred in the PV plant. This paper presents a method for an effective fault diagnosis; this method is based on the day-ahead forecast of the output power from an existing PV module, linked to a micro-converter, and on the outcome of the neighbor PV modules. Finally, this paper proposes also the analysis of the most common error definitions with new mathematical formulations, by comparing their effectiveness and immediate comprehension, in view of increasing power forecasting accuracy and performing both real-time and offline analysis of PV modules performance and possible faults.
关键词： PV system,day-ahead forecast,micro-inverter,Fault diagnosis
更新于2025-09-11 14:15:04