研究目的
To achieve a more accurate forecast of photovoltaic power by improving the photovoltaic power generation system based on the theory of the similar day output power, considering the aging of components.
研究成果
The power prediction error is smaller when considering the aging, and the power obtained is closer to the real value, so the power generation power prediction when considering the aging of components is more instructive.
研究不足
The aging degree of different components may be deviated due to the location of the power station. Therefore, this defect needs to be improved in the future power prediction.
1：Experimental Design and Method Selection:
The study improves the current power prediction algorithm by considering the aging of components. It uses historical meteorological data, historical power data of power station, and the battery components used in the plant and plant operation time to conclude the specific power prediction function relation.
2：Sample Selection and Data Sources:
Components with output power of 250w and polysilicon were obtained by contacting a manufacturer after 0.5, 1, 1.5 and 2 years. The generation power measured under the standard test conditions is used.
3：5, 1, 5 and 2 years. The generation power measured under the standard test conditions is used.
List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
3. List of Experimental Equipment and Materials: Components (components with output power of 250w and polysilicon), automatic meteorological stations, various meteorological sensors.
4：Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
Components were placed in natural conditions for different periods, then tested under standard test conditions to measure the amount of power produced. The relationship between the obtained power and the tested power at the initial time and the aging coefficient of the components over time is obtained.
5：Data Analysis Methods:
The relationship between component aging coefficient and time is analyzed. The power prediction based on component aging coefficient is calculated.
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