研究目的
To develop a novel short-term PV forecasting technique that exploits the location information of multiple PV sites and historical PV generation data for accurate forecasting.
研究成果
The proposed STCNN model effectively captures the cloud cover and cloud movement, outperforming the other forecasting models based on AR, FNN, and LSTM in terms of NRMSE, MAPE, and MASE. It also shows the highest error reduction when multiple PV sites are aggregated, making it a promising approach for short-term spatio-temporal PV forecasting.
研究不足
The proposed STCNN model is particularly effective when the periods of historical PV data are not sufficiently long, e.g., just one year; this can be a typical case for many recently built PV sites. However, when a longer period of historical data is available (e.g., more than 5 years), methods with higher complexity might be more accurate.
1:Experimental Design and Method Selection:
The study proposes a space-time convolutional neural network (STCNN) for multi-site PV forecasting, utilizing a greedy adjoining algorithm (GAA) to preprocess PV data into a space-time matrix that captures spatio-temporal correlation.
2:Sample Selection and Data Sources:
The study uses PV generation data from 238 sites in California, 67 sites in New York, and 103 sites in Alabama, released by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).
3:List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
The study employs a convolutional neural network (CNN) with three types of layers: convolutional layer, max pooling layer, and fully connected layer.
4:Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
The GAA serializes the PV generating sites to transfer two-dimensional spatial information into one-dimension, constructing a space-time matrix as the input of CNN. The CNN model is trained to predict the next H hours of PV generation.
5:Data Analysis Methods:
The performance of each prediction scheme is evaluated using three performance metrics: the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the mean absolute scaled error (MASE).
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