研究目的
Investigating the rapid variation (ramp event) of photovoltaic (PV) power generation and its future ramp possibility for the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) power area.
研究成果
The study successfully estimates regional PV power generation and identifies potential ramp events under future PV system installation scenarios. It highlights the importance of real-time estimation and ramp detection for transmission and distribution system operators.
研究不足
The study relies on assumptions for future PV system installation scenarios and does not account for all potential variables affecting PV power generation, such as unforeseen technological advancements or policy changes.
1：Experimental Design and Method Selection
The study uses satellite-estimated solar radiation data to monitor PV power generation in real-time. It employs a method combining a radiation transfer model and neural networks for satellite-based estimation of solar radiation.
2：Sample Selection and Data Sources
The study focuses on the TEPCO power area, using data from the Himawari-8 satellite and surface monitoring instruments. PV system installation capacity in each municipality was considered for regional estimation of PV power generation.
3：List of Experimental Equipment and Materials
Himawari-8 satellite for solar radiation data, AMATERASS data for satellite-estimated solar radiation, and JMA operational NWP and mesoscale model for temperature forecast data.
4：Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow
The study estimates PV power generation over several horizontal scales using satellite-estimated solar radiation data. It calculates PV module temperature using temperature forecast data and assumes constant values for power loss of power conditioners and other losses.
5：Data Analysis Methods
The study analyzes temporal and spatial variations in PV power generation under different future PV system installation scenarios using satellite-derived data and statistical techniques.
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