研究目的
To propose a methodology for conducting simulations of operational scenarios for energy projects based on photovoltaic generation systems, considering time series of weather with strong seasonality and structural breaks.
研究成果
The proposed methodology provides a robust framework for simulating operational scenarios for photovoltaic energy projects, taking into account the dynamic relationship between weather variables and solar radiation. It offers a practical tool for project managers to assess operational risks and make informed decisions based on statistical analysis of weather data.
研究不足
The methodology's effectiveness depends on the availability and quality of public weather time series data. The approach may require adaptation for regions with markedly different weather patterns or for projects with specific data requirements.
1：Experimental Design and Method Selection:
The methodology involves selecting relevant variables, choosing an empirical model based on fitting criteria, testing for model stability, simulating operational scenarios, and generating output variables for project management.
2：Sample Selection and Data Sources:
Uses public weather time series recorded by meteorological observatories, focusing on variables like temperature, humidity, dew point, wind velocity, precipitation level, atmospheric pressure, and cloudiness.
3：List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
Not explicitly mentioned.
4：Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
Includes transforming original series to daily averages, estimating models with subsets of variables, testing for structural breaks, and simulating scenarios based on weather parameters.
5：Data Analysis Methods:
Uses ordinary least squares (OLS) and subsets of regressions, Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for model selection, and structural break tests for stability analysis.
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