研究目的
Developing intelligent algorithms to accurately predict the future snow loss of PV farms based on meteorological data.
研究成果
The study successfully developed accurate models for predicting daily snow loss of PV farms using machine learning algorithms, with gradient boosted trees achieving the best performance. The models can be applied to other PV systems with similar characteristics, though retraining may be necessary for optimal performance.
研究不足
The study is limited to a specific PV farm in Ontario, Canada, and may not generalize to other locations without retraining the models. The models' performance could be affected by the inclusion of additional input variables or different PV system characteristics.
1:Experimental Design and Method Selection:
A 3-stage model was implemented for snow loss calculation, involving yield determination, power loss calculation, and snow loss extraction. Machine learning algorithms including regression trees, gradient boosted trees, random forest, feed-forward and recurrent artificial neural networks, and support vector machines were used for prediction models.
2:Sample Selection and Data Sources:
Hourly data records of technical parameters and meteorological measurements from a PV farm in Ontario, Canada over a 4-year period were used.
3:List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
PV panels, inverters, and meteorological measurement devices.
4:Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
Data preparation involved outlier detection and removal, missing data filling, and normalization. The 3-stage model was applied to calculate snow loss, followed by training and testing of prediction models.
5:Data Analysis Methods:
Performance analysis was conducted using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE) metrics.
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