研究目的
To determine the relative effects of discriminatory and uniform tariffs on the US economy using solar panels as a case study, focusing on domestic welfare, employment, government revenue, and environmental costs.
研究成果
Uniform tariffs are more effective than discriminatory tariffs in increasing domestic producer welfare and government revenue but cause greater harm to consumers, employment, and the environment due to higher prices and reduced demand. When all costs are considered, there is little difference between the two tariffs, and the choice depends on policy goals: uniform tariffs are preferable for supporting manufacturers and increasing revenue, while discriminatory tariffs may be better for job creation and minimizing consumer and environmental impacts.
研究不足
The analysis is based on a partial equilibrium model and assumes perfect substitutability between domestic and imported solar panels. It does not account for interaction effects, such as government revenue being used for subsidies, which may overestimate costs. Parameter uncertainty exists due to lack of empirical estimates for some elasticities, and the model focuses solely on US policy changes without considering foreign retaliation or broader economic impacts.
1：Experimental Design and Method Selection:
The study employs an Equilibrium Displacement Model (EDM) to analyze the effects of US import tariffs on solar panels, assuming a three-country market with the US as a net importer and China/Taiwan and Rest-of-World as net exporters. Two regimes are compared: discriminatory tariff (applied only to China and Taiwan) and uniform tariff (applied to all imports). The model is based on residual demand models and pass-through elasticity analysis, incorporating trade diversion effects.
2：Sample Selection and Data Sources:
Data for US imports, production, consumption, and prices of solar panels are obtained from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the year 2016. Employment data are sourced from The Solar Foundations' National Solar Jobs Census and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3：Employment data are sourced from The Solar Foundations' National Solar Jobs Census and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
3. List of Experimental Equipment and Materials: No specific equipment or materials are mentioned; the study relies on economic modeling and data analysis.
4：Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
The model equations are derived and parameterized using elasticities and quantity shares. Stochastic simulations are performed with 5000 random draws using Simetar, an Excel add-in, to account for parameter uncertainty. Deterministic simulations distinguish between short-run and long-run effects.
5：Data Analysis Methods:
Reduced-form elasticities are computed to analyze the effects on prices, production, consumption, and imports. Welfare effects are assessed through changes in consumer surplus, producer surplus, tariff revenue, employment costs, and environmental costs. Sensitivity analysis is conducted with 90% confidence intervals.
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