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[IEEE 2018 4th International Conference on Computational Intelligence & Communication Technology (CICT) - Ghaziabad (2018.2.9-2018.2.10)] 2018 4th International Conference on Computational Intelligence & Communication Technology (CICT) - Development of a Decision-Based Neural Network for a Day-Ahead Prediction of Solar PV Plant Power Output

DOI:10.1109/CIACT.2018.8480396 出版年份:2018 更新时间:2025-09-23 15:21:01
摘要: Day-ahead photovoltaic power prediction is vital for policy making and providing necessary backup capacities. Previous researchers include the implementation of time series, auto-regression and Soft computing techniques like Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic. Artificial Neural Networks provides a better fit to complex, non-linear and error-prone data. The paper shows a comparative study of a Radial Basis Neural Network Schema (exact fit), a ‘k-means’ Radial Neural Network, and a Feed Forward Neural Network with Levenberg-Marquardt error backpropagation designed for the prediction of power output at an hourly resolution. The ability of the Neural Network to be trained to adapt to a previous set of data and then interpolate or extrapolate to the new data set has been exploited. The proposed model uses five meteorological variables and uses recorded data collected from the SN Mohanty PV Power Plant. Training of neural network is done on a monthly basis so that normalization constants of variables can be lower and better mapping can be produced. An improved decision-based schematic using Neural Networks is proposed which combines the advantages of both Radial Basis Function (exact fit) and FFNN.
作者: Rahul Kumar Mandal,Paresh Kale
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to present a model using ANN which can give a precise prediction of the PV power when various environmental factors influencing the power output are known.

The RBFEF method shows the least RMSE but can produce sharp drops in simulated output. The FFNN method has a higher RMSE but better envelopes the actual power production. A decision-based ANN schematic (DBNN) is developed to combine the advantages of both methods, improving the RMSE by up to 6% and resolving the issue of sudden dips in power output.

The study is limited by the quality and completeness of the SCADA system data, which may include erroneous readings or periods of power outages. The model's performance is also dependent on the selection of the spread constant (σ) for the RBFEF method.

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